We can do anything we want, but we can’t do everything we want.
The process of empirical thinking — defining goals, exploring what’s out there, changing one thing at a time, and tracking of results — is powerful. It’s one of the most reliable ways to learn what actually works.
But it isn’t the right tool for every problem.
Every day we’re faced with dozens, if not hundreds, of problems to solve. What groceries do we need? What’s for dinner this week? What are we doing on the weekend? It takes time and effort to tackle a problem using a structured process, and we simply don’t have enough energy to apply this approach to everything.
This is why the next step once your goal is clear – but before diving into testing – is to decide on the level of effort you want to invest in this goal.
Consider something you might do nearly every day like making a purchase online. Each time you search for a product, you are flooded with dozens of options, personalized ads, and customer reviews. The amount of time you invest in your research is going to depend on two key things:
- Potential Payoff: How much different is a great versus OK version of this product? Cheap vs. expensive?
- Effort Required: How hard is it to research this? Are there a ton of options or only a few? Is it easy or hard to find and understand relevant information?
In business settings this is often called an opportunity analysis. Simply put, this means comparing what I stand to gain against what I have to give up in order to realize that gain (usually in terms of time and treasure). Ultimately the decision is subjective—it depends on how much you value the goal you’re trying to achieve.
It’s also not a one and done decision. As you make progress you start to realize some of the potential upside, meaning there is less to gain in the future (probably at higher cost) the longer you keep going.
Let’s apply this thinking to my pasta sauce example.
In the part 1 of the framework, I decided that making a great pasta sauce was my goal, and we worked through the process of articulating that in a clear, SMART way. What we need to decide now is whether this is the right goal for me to invest my time and effort into, given everything else going on in my life. Let’s consider the cost and benefits of going down this path:
- Potential payoff is unclear: I think I can make a better sauce for less money than buying one, but it’s difficult to say how much better I can do. However, I think trying at least one test will let me see if there is any improvement.
- Effort required is low: making pasta sauce requires relatively cheap, easy to find ingredients. Preparing and cooking the sauce will take 1-2 hours each time.
With this simple analysis I can make an informed decision – is it worth to me to spend a couple of hours and a few dollars to improve a meal I eat multiple times per week?
While I might decide this is worth it, you may not – and that’s totally fine! The key idea is simple: spend your time, energy, and attention on the problems that matter most to you. By clearly considering the costs and benefits up front, you can invest effort in learning what is most important, without burning yourself out on the small stuff.
And now that I’ve decided making a new pasta sauce is worth it to me, it’s time to explore the solutions (that is, the sauces) that are already out there.
Next: Part 3: See what solutions are already out there
Thinking Empirically 